Your observations are right on. One more view is to also consider taht due to slow adaptation to RFID by Enterprises; what is also happening withing wireless industry consisting of vendors and operators is that they are not putting full efforts into this space.

This chicken and egg dilemma (customers first or solutions first) needs to be considered in context with need for innovative thinking around enterprise mobility and Enterprise Wireless Data Architecture which are soley focused on mobile Voice and Access to emails and intranet applications as primary mobile applications.

If Wireless Industry can create a compelling Vision with multi-application, multi-services platform approach that integrates all aspects of Wireless applications, Wireless Voice, Wireless Security with existing and emerging Enterprise Application interfaces, IP PBXs, IP Networks as well as Legacy databases; it will not only catapult the rise of non-human data traffic over high speed wireless data networks but may also pave way for convergence of enterprise applications and mobility applications.

It will be interesting to watch emergence of innovative approaches towards enterprise convergence coming from Wireless Industry as it spearheads IMS approach in its own core network.

For start up businesses that are looking for an opportunity to chase in an emerging space, wireless M2M can present several opportunities. Like you rightly point out, it may take several years before the solutions are widely deployed–literally and figuratively. But, early entrants are likely to get the lead advantage of learning.

I feel, the strategy to adopt is to select applications that will deliever value (e.g., cost savings or higher transaction rate) and grow one application at a time. You have also hinted this approach by indicating the cost per node. It is important to cost the solution architecture carefully to be able to return a net cost advantage in a relatively short period of time. So, business modeling is a very critical activity to undertake along with the solution architecting.

The emergence of technology elements like cognitive (software-defined) radio in the next few years can dramatically change the cost equation, as the hardware would then become more sharable (reconfigurable) among multiple wireless standards. Further advances in power management can enable new application contexts. This is an interesting domain where advances in micro-architectures (standards, devices, equipment, middleware) and macro-architectures (solution architecture, business process) are advancing concurrently. Clearly, inherently complex to manage, but the simplicity will emerge ultimately.

One of the key business drivers can be the wireless service provider’s opportunity to make money off the infrastructure provisioning. Emerging economies such as India can present several virgin application opportunities where legacy is not an issue. A good space to look at for the “India out” business plans, I feel.

So, I am for the cautious optimism that you seem to share about the possibilities of wirelss M2M. While “coolness” may draw the attention, the sustainability has to come from real business opportunities that can get uncovered on the way. Perhaps a domain for those who have the stamina to stay long haul.