I’d say, tinkering the business model may not count - but designing and innovating the business model does.

One of my favorite has been Dr. Alex Osterwalder now at Arvetica.

http://business-model-design.blogspot.com/

You might want to look at his work on Business Model Design and Innovation…

He proves empericaly that by designing and innovating business model, business growth can become non-linear.

Regards,
Raja.

Welcome back - was missing your posts for a while.

Since I have zero knowledge of big pharma or small pharma, let me offer some tangential thoughts.

1) You have already mentioned ‘Innovator’s dilemma’ in your earlier posts. Going by the dilemma, the big pharma will be the last ones to change.

2) There is a recent book out by Nassim Taleb - the guy who wrote ‘Fooled by Randomness’. The book is called ‘Black Swan’. It is a fascinating book and among other things, touches upon orbit changing events in various situations.

From the book’s dust cover:
“A black swan is a highly improbable event with 3 principle characteristics: its unpredictability; its massive impact; and, after it has happened, our desire to make it appear les random and more predictable that in was. The astonishing success of Google was a Black Swan; so was 9/11.”

So, if this premise is true, the really fundamental changes are fundamental precisely because they are unpredictable. Was the success of Cisco and failure of Lucent _that_ predictable?

I would love to know your take on this.

Regards,
Ravi