Some years back global warming was an issue for debate inside the scientific community. Now that moment has passed. And the focus has shifted to dealing with the impact. Similarly, in mid-80s, there was a ferocious debate about discount airlines: Were they an aberration or were they harbingers of significant change? Colliding worldviews jostled with each other for a long time before EasyJet and RyanAir resolved the argument in mid-90s. Whenever there are tectonic shifts involved in the industry or public policy landscape, there comes a tipping point when the conversation shifts from envisioning the future to realizing the future.
We’ve hit that tipping point in the software industry. There is a general belief that a seismic change is underway and the old model of software cost and complexity is being replaced with new model of affordability and ease of use. People are no longer talking about what will happen; they are worrying about making it happen.
I am not suggesting that there is no ambiguity about the future. While it’s clear that the traditional “load, update, and upgrade” model is fading, it is not entirely apparent as to what exact form the new “discover, learn, try, buy, recommend” model will take.. There are many details that still need to be worked out. We still need to sharpen our understanding of key concepts by parsing the early success stories. At this stage of the industry evolution, believers and agnostics discussing what might come next do not dominate the collective dialogue. Entrepreneurs, intrapreneurs, and practitioners step in and set the agenda. They understand that their organization has reached the limit of the orbit it is in, and for the next big jump the organization needs a shift in orbit. This orbit change, this transformation, requires confronting legacy business models, dealing with the innovators’ dilemmas, overcoming old mindsets and defeating inertia. It’s about making new assumptions and embracing new beliefs. Out of this comes a new inside-out perspective.
Conversations become richer as this new inside-out narrative supplements the older discussion thread of outside-in analysis. And if markets are conversations (as the Cluetrain guys suggest) then these conversations mould the new industry zeitgeist. I have a fervent hope that through this blog I can be a part of these conversations.
Sharad Sharma
3rd Nov 2006